Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,369$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(426 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,942.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,942.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $488$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(81.5 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{460.6}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 23.5)}}\) (asimptote \(460.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,414$ on 2020-05-08

Mauritius

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(120 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{334.6}{1 + 10^{-0.102 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(334.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.12 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.6}{1 + 10^{-0.087 (t - 11.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2$ on 2020-05-08

Congo (Kinshasa)

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $937$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(49.4 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(7.74 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 21.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $768$ on 2020-05-08

Morocco

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,711$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(433 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,370.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,370.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $186$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(43.6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176.0}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 18.3)}}\) (asimptote \(176.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,201$ on 2020-05-08

Egypt

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,476$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(350 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,203.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 57.2)}}\) (asimptote \(17,203.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $503$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(47.7 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{611.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(611.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,028$ on 2020-05-08

Cameroon

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,267$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(242 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,975.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,975.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $108$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(6.42 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(294.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,157$ on 2020-05-08

Tunisia

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,030$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(216 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,005.4}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 23.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,005.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(12.7 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42.0}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 16.0)}}\) (asimptote \(42.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $347$ on 2020-05-08

Gabon

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $620$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(7.04 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(8.0\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-05-08

Active

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $502$ on 2020-05-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Niger recovered 70%
Djibouti recovered 63%
Tunisia recovered 57%
Morocco recovered 3%

Niger

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $795$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(267 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{727.1}{1 + 10^{-0.107 (t - 10.9)}}\) (asimptote \(727.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(6.57 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(61.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $151$ on 2020-05-08

Djibouti

Population $988,000$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,135$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(96.2 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,110.0}{1 + 10^{-0.132 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,110.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3$ on 2020-05-08

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $308$ on 2020-05-08